Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, July 24th

Monday’s bond market has opened down slightly despite weaker than thought housing data. Stocks are starting the week mixed with the Dow down 60 points and the Nasdaq up 1 point. The bond market is currently down 4/32 (2.25%). That isn’t enough of a move to show much of a change in mortgage pricing, meaning we should see this morning’s rates be very close to Friday’s level.

4/32


Bonds


30 yr - 2.25%

60


Dow


21,519

1


NASDAQ


6,388

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Positive


Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

Today’s only relevant economic data was June's Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors at 10:00 AM ET. They announced that home resales fell 1.8% last month, which was a little larger of a decline than was expected. The decline in sales is favorable for bonds and mortgage rates, but the size of the variance from expectations was small and this is only a moderately important release. Therefore, we have seen little reaction to the news.

---


Unknown


None

The rest of the week brings us the release of six more economic reports that may impact mortgage rates, one of which is considered to be highly influential. In addition to the economic data, there is also another FOMC meeting that certainly has the potential to cause chaos in the markets and a couple of Treasury auctions mid-week. There is at least one event set for every day, so there is a strong likelihood of seeing noticeable mortgage rate movement and possibly multiple intra-day revisions this week.

Medium


Unknown


Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

Tomorrow has one of those reports being released. The Conference Board will post their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, they are apt to make large purchases in the near future. This is important because consumer spending makes up such a large portion of our economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, meaning that consumers were less confident than thought and likely will delay making a large personal purchase, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 116.8, which would be a weaker reading than June's 118.9 and indicate consumers are a little less comfortable with their finances than they were last month.

---


Unknown


None

Overall, Wednesday has great potential to be the most active day for mortgage rates due to the FOMC meeting. However, there is also a chance that it will yield no surprises and cause little change to rates. If that’s the case, Friday will probably end up being the most important day of the week. The calmest day could be today or tomorrow. There is plenty on tap this week that may influence mortgage rates, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.